Prime Minister goes South
In breaking news, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in West Palm Beach, Florida to have dinner with President-Elect Trump. It appears that the Prime Minister will be the first G7 leader to meet Mr. Trump in person since his election win.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday evening, the Prime Minister met virtually with his provincial counterparts in an urgently convened meeting to discuss the path forward with respect to President-Elect Trump’s threat to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. While the federal government adamantly attempts to again pursue a “Team Canada” approach to Canada-US relations, the cracks in the proposed common front are only getting bigger, both amongst the provinces, as well as with the opposition parties in Ottawa.
Alex Steinhouse of the Government Relations and Political Law (GR&PL) group provides additional context below.
First Ministers Meet
On Wednesday, thePrime Minister, along with Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland, the Minister of Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs, Dominic LeBlanc, and Canada’s Ambassador to the United States, Kirsten Hillman, held a virtual First Ministers’ Meeting to discuss the Canada-US relationship.
According to Prime Minister Trudeau’s readout of the meeting, the Prime Minister, and the Premiers “discussed how the federal, provincial, and territorial governments should work together through a Team Canada approach to further strengthen Canada’s close relationship with the US and ensure both countries work together in areas of mutual interest.” Most notably, this included fostering trade and investment, upholding the safety and integrity of our shared border, sustaining cross-border supply chains, and supporting Canadian and American manufacturing sectors.
The Prime Minister underscored the investments already made to disrupt the fentanyl supply, and to ensure better border enforcement. He reminded the Premiers that the numbers of apprehended individuals crossing into the United States pales in comparison to those coming in from Mexico, and the same applies to the stark disparity in quantities of fentanyl being smuggled into the United States.
According to numbers from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) that the Government of Canada has been citing, in the last fiscal year, US border patrol officers made 23,721 arrests of migrants trying to cross illegally from Canada, more than double the 10,021 the year before (on the Southern border, border patrol officers made 1.53 million arrests during that same time period).
However, the story at the Northern border is more complex. According to CBP testimony before the House Committee on Homeland Security this past spring, the majority of those crossing into the United States from Canada are “individuals attempting to evade apprehension, which differs from the Southwest border, where border sector chiefs told the [House of Representatives Homeland Security] Committee that large groups now turn themselves in to Border Patrol in the hopes of being released directly into the country.”
In fact, the vast majority of those crossing into the US from the North are single adults, raising concerns about the possible security threats posed by the majority of those individuals who are not taken into immediate custody before their trial. Alarmingly, border patrol agents at the Northern border apprehended 87% of the total number of apprehended individuals on the US Terrorist Screening Dataset (otherwise known as the “Terrorist Watchlist”) in the last fiscal year.
Meanwhile, according to the CBP, the agency seized 43 lbs of fentanyl at the Canada-US border in the last year, excluding October, compared to 21,148 lbs at the Mexico-US border in the same period.
Deputy Prime Minister and Public Safety Minister on the First Ministers’ Meeting
In the post-First-Ministers’ press conference, Deputy Prime Minister Freeland rattled off a series of noteworthy facts on the Canada-US relationship: Canada is the largest market for the US, by far – it is in fact larger than China, Japan, the United Kingdom and France combined. Moreover, the United States relies on Canada for essential products, including oil, electricity, critical minerals, and metals. As the adoption of Artificial Intelligence increases, the American need for these exports will only increase further.
Meanwhile, Minister Leblanc set out that he will work with the Premiers in the coming weeks to set a “Team Canada” approach in terms of border security, national security and ensuring the immigration system is orderly. He underscored the need to spend more money in the near term, including on surge capacity for RCMP officers and Canadian Border Services Agency (CBSA) agents, as well as on procuring new technologies, drones, and helicopters. He hopes the political opposition in Ottawa will put aside the filibuster to act in Canada’s interest in this respect.
However, he offered no details or a timeline to this new spending, other than having said that his office has been “been working with finance officials, the RCMP and the CBSA for months to see what is needed and feasible.”
Government sources have since suggested that these border-security investments will be announced in the weeks ahead, either through a Fall Economic Statement, or separately, should the parliamentary impasse continue in Ottawa.
Both Ministers underscored that everyone in the meeting “agreed that this is a time to play as “Team Canada.”
When Deputy Prime Minister Freeland was pressed on the veracity of that assertion, she conceded that there are differing viewpoints at the table, but pointed out that one of the Premiers, who normally does not agree on much with the Prime Minister, said that he could not believe he just agreed with Mr. Trudeau on so many things.
What Are the Premiers Saying?
However, multiple Premiers do not share the rose-tinted glasses of the federal government in terms of the prospects of a unified “Team Canada” approach. Prior to the meeting, many Premiers made it clear that they expected a detailed plan from the Prime Minister to secure the border in this meeting. They left the meeting disappointed and doing contingency planning within their own jurisdictions.
In a statement immediately after the meeting, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he expressed his criticism during the meeting of Ottawa’s slow response to US economic and security concerns. “I stressed that the federal government has been slow to react and is stuck on its backfoot,” he said.
The Premier went on to say that he hoped this meeting, which he had himself requested on Monday to be called, was the “start of a more proactive approach from the federal government, including by showing that it takes the security of our border seriously by cracking down on illegal border crossings and stopping the transport of guns and illegal and illicit drugs like fentanyl, or risk the economic chaos of Trump tariffs.”
Earlier that day, the Ontario government announced it was taking matters into its own hands, by launching a multimillion-dollar advertising campaign in the United States to highlight that country’s close economic ties with the province and the future possibilities between the two. The Premier also announced that the OPP was open to partnering with federal agencies to beef up border enforcement.
Since his statement, Premier Ford has appeared more upbeat about the meeting, saying he believed it “was a real constructive conversation.” In an interview on Thursday, the Premier “stressed he’s ‘confident … we’ll be able to move forward on this in a rapid fashion’ in terms of sending Trump a message that Canada is making border security a priority.”
Meanwhile, yesterday evening, Québec Premier François Legault said the Prime Minister failed during the meeting to outline a sufficiently detailed plan to satisfy Mr. Trump. The Premier has previously stated that he will send Sûreté du Québec officers to the Québec-US border, and has demanded that Québec have its own representative at the table when economic negotiations with the Americans get underway. The Premier is concerned Québec’s major industries, such as aerospace, forestry, and agriculture, will be sacrificed to spare Alberta’s oil and Ontario’s auto sectors.
However, on Thursday morning, Premier Legault somewhat changed his tune, saying he was happy with what he had subsequently heard from Ministers Freeland and Leblanc, and looks forward to seeing the full details of the plan.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smithsaid her province will be “acting urgently and decisively to patrol [Alberta’s] shared border with Montana, with more details to be announced soon in that regard.” While she opposes tariffs, she believes that Mr. Trump has “valid concerns related to illegal migrants and drug smuggling at our shared border.” She has previously suggested that Prime Minister Trudeau may not be the right person to face Mr. Trump at the negotiation, as there is too much political animus between them.
On top of demanding that Canada immediately meet its 2% of GDP NATO target, Premier Smith also asserts that the federal government must immediately desist from enacting an “energy production cap that would result in a massive curtailment of oil to the United States […] as a show of commitment to North American energy security and partnership.”
As for BC Premier David Eby, he has said that his province shares the border concerns of Mr. Trump, and has repeatedly raised concerns with Ottawa about funding cuts to the CBSA, especially with respect to controlling fentanyl or precursor chemicals shipments at the province’s ports.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe is also willing for his province to go at it alone, stating that his province is “prepared to use all levers at its disposal to stop the tariffs and will approach the US directly.”
Meanwhile, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew says he is happy to play a role in “Team Canada,” but “his focus is on leading Manitoba.” The Premier continues to demand that the federal government immediately meet its NATO target and beef up drug enforcement and border security. He has also suggested that the Premiers are united in their desire to secure this most important relationship.
Finally, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey, who is chair of the eastern premiers group including Québec, is seeking a meeting with New England governor counterparts, to explain the toll tariffs would take on their electricity rates.
He did offer some positive thoughts about Wednesday’s meeting towards a “Team Canada” approach: “While we have domestic differences of opinions with the federal government often, and almost all jurisdictions do, I do believe that there was, there can be, and should be a united front in approaching the United States, respecting the regional sensitivities.”
What About the Federal Opposition Parties?
The Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre has called Mr. Trump’s tariff threat “unjustified” and has suggested a willingness to impose retaliatory tariffs if necessary. However, unlike the last time when senior Conservatives. including Hon. Rona Ambrose and Hon. James Moore played an active role on “Team Canada,” Mr. Poilievre does not appear to be interested in joining a united “Team Canada” approach to facing the Trump administration.
Mr. Poilievre has been emphatic in asserting that the Liberal Government has been unprepared for the Trump administration, and that all that has been put forward as a response to the tariffs threat is a “Zoom call ” –i.e., the First Ministers meeting. He has also seized on the fact that “the provinces are stepping in to fill a border leadership void caused by Ottawa’s inaction on border security.”
When asked, Mr. Poilievre has been dismissive so far of the “Team Canada” approach, stating that it is of little benefit: "What we don't need is a spectacle of a bunch of politicians sitting around tables, meeting and holding photo ops," he said. "What we really need is an action plan with tangibles."
In terms of the Conservatives’ strategy for dealing with the Trump administration and the tariffs more particularly, Mr. Poilievre has suggested that Canada needs a leader with "brains," a "backbone,’ and a "Canada first" plan. This plan necessarily includes the repeal of the federal carbon tax and an end to the cap on greenhouse gas emissions from the oil and gas sector. In Mr. Poilievre’s eyes, the most effective counter to the tariffs threat is shoring up Canada’s lagging productivity and strengthening our economy to withstand it. To accomplish that, he states that Canadians must immediately go to the polls to elect a new government.
Meanwhile, the New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh hassuggested that the Prime Minister should “fight like hell” and called on the government to establish a “war room”: “the only thing a bully responds to is strength," the NDP leader said in question period. Moreover, NDP MP Blake Desjarlais has called for Canada to diversify its trade away from the United States.
As for the Bloc Québécois leader Yves-François Blanchet, he has backed up Premier Legault’s demands for Québec representation at the negotiation table, and to dramatically increase resources to better address regular and irregular migration at the border.
Path Forward
Canadians should not be surprised by the increasingly frayed bonds amidst our federation and our federal Parliament, which are even more evidently on display in the face of this threat of American tariffs.
During the last Trump administration, Prime Minister Trudeau had just won a commanding majority government, and Premiers and the opposition were politically wise to acknowledge the strength in his mandate and to work together against the common threat.
However, this time around, the Prime Minister’s minority government is increasingly endangered by the day, and there is little political win in standing behind him. Their advantage lies in exploiting the government’s perceived weakness. This applies to both Premiers such as Mr. Ford who intend to run against the Trudeau government in their next election, as well as the federal Conservatives who are the prohibitive favourites to decisively win the next federal election.
As we only begin to embark on the tumultuous ride to come with the Trump administration, let us hope our politicians across the country find ways to stand united, and not let the Trump administration divide us and end up conquered.
