After the shortest campaign period permitted by the Canada Elections Act, and at an approximate cost of approximately $600 million, the 2021 federal election ended in much the same place that it started. Not only have the Liberals returned with a minority, but the number of seats held by each federal party remains virtually unchanged. So, without the intrigue of a new government being installed or a prime minister eager to wield a majority, how might the 2021 federal election be remembered?
Many commentators have focused on the political fall-out that we may witness in the coming months. How soon will the next election be and will Justin Trudeau and Erin O’Toole remain at the helm of their respective parties? What is the future of the People’s Party of Canada and Green Party? With several viable political parties for voters to consider, is Canada entering a permanent state of minority federal governments?
These are all important questions (and ink will no doubt continue to be spilled on them).
But, in terms of the number of people that voted, how they voted and the amount of time it took them to vote, the 2021 federal election was noteworthy.
Voter turnout has been estimated at approximately 62 percent. Compared to each of the last five federal elections, the number of eligible voters that cast a ballot was on the low side. For reference, voter turnout was:
- 67 percent in 2019
- 68.3 percent in 2015
- 61.1 percent in 2011
- 58.8 percent in 2008
- 60.9 percent in 2004 [1]
However, there was a significant increase in the number of Canadians who voted before election day. As of September 14, the Chief Electoral Officer of Canada estimated that 5,780,000 voters chose to vote in advance polls, which represents an 18.4% increase from the 4,879,312 voters who cast their vote in advance polls in 2019.[2]
Those who voted in advance were surely glad that they did. Many Canadians were met with uncharacteristically long lines on election day, leaving some to choose not to vote at all.
It remains to be seen if any of these trends will become part of a broader pattern, though it seems clear that voters would make continued use of advance voting options (even outside of a pandemic). This will be something to watch in the coming months, or years, until the next election.
Kai Olson is an associate with the Fasken Ottawa office. He practices in the area of political law and advises clients on lobbying law, lobbyist registration and compliance and public sector conflict of interest matters. Kai also acts for clients who are the subjects of regulatory investigations or enforcement proceedings for political law offences.
[1] Elections Canada, “Voter Turnout at Federal Elections and Referendums,” online.
[2] Elections Canada, “Estimate of Turnout at Advance Polls Now Available,” September 14, 2021.
