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Canada - Trump Administration 2.0 - Update #1

Fasken
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Overview

Update #1: November 7, 2024

On Thursday, November 7, 2024, Prime Minister Trudeau announced the re-establishment of the Cabinet Committee on Canada-US relations, which had initially been established for the first Trump Presidency.

Deputy Prime Minister Freeland is the Chair, and Public Safety, Democratic Institutions and Intergovernmental Affairs Minister, Dominic Leblanc, as the Vice-Chair. The other members of the Committee are Ministers Anita Anand (Transport and Treasury Board), Bill Blair (Defence), François-Philippe Champagne (Industry), Mélanie Joly (Foreign Affairs), Lawrence MacAuley (Agriculture), Marc Miller (Immigration, Refugees, Citizenship), Mary Ng (Trade), Harjit Sajjan (Emergency Preparedness), and Jonathan Wilkinson (Natural Resources).

Their first meeting was convened this morning. In her post-Committee press conference this afternoon, Deputy Prime Minister Freeland described this newly re-established entity as an “operational, action-oriented committee,” tasked with bringing ministers together from across government as a working group to tackle urgent issues as they arise. The Committee will meet often, with the next meeting scheduled for early next week. The top two priorities for this Committee will be trade and the border. The Government had enacted a similar Cabinet Committee to deal with issues relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, which had enabled more nimble government execution for major policy decisions.

Alex Steinhouse of the Government Relations and Political Law (GR&PL) provides the following additional context regarding the new Canada-USA relationship dynamics in Ottawa.

With the transition to President-Elect Trump’s presidency already underway towards the Presidential swearing in on January 20th, 2025, the Government of Canada is executing on its contingency planning in the face of a commanding Republican performance in Tuesday’s Presidential and Congressional elections.

Canada is facing many potential significant irritants with life under this new administration, including the renegotiation of CUSMA/aggressive protectionist trade tariffs in the range of 10%-20%, a rise in migration from the United States, pressure to dramatically and more quickly raise Defence spending to 2% or above of GDP than the previously announced plan targeting 2032, the reduction or elimination of Inflation Reduction Act subsidies and tax incentives for the EV industry, and pressure to match expected American corporate tax cuts.

During this past January’s federal Cabinet retreat, Prime Minister Trudeau tasked his Industry and Trade Ministers, François-Philippe Champagne and Mary Ng, to be “Team Canada” co-leads in bringing together provincial and territorial leaders and experts in labour, business and academia as a united front for the purposes of bilateral engagement with their respective American Democratic and Republican counterparts.

Over the past year, both Ministers have been frequent travelers to major American cities and state capitals, forging new connections and demonstrating the interconnectedness of our two countries’ economic ties. The Ministers have reported that more than 500 meetings have taken place since January and that they have met with 46 of the 50 State governors. Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Freeland has been maintaining her relationships from the last Trump administration, including with Robert Lighthizer, who will once more, it appears, play a decisive role under President Trump on US trade policy.

Prime Minister Speaks with the President-Elect

On Wednesday, Prime Minister Trudeau had his first post-election phone conversation with President-Elect Trump. Both official and unofficial accounts indicated that the tenor of this call was high level and cordial, focused on shared interests such as secure and reliable supply chains and addressing unfair trading practices in the global economy (notably, China). It is nonetheless noteworthy that President-Elect Trump spoke to Prime Minister Trudeau only after conversations with other counterparts, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban. Traditionally, the Canadian Prime Minister is the first call a newly elected American President will receive.

Since election night, Deputy Prime Minister Freeland has already met with key Canadian industry players, including representatives from the steel and aluminum industry, the major banks, and will be meeting over the coming hours and days with the Maple 8 pension funds, the oil and gas sector, and labour leaders. Meanwhile, Foreign Affairs Minister Joly is meeting with the outgoing Biden administration, key Congressional contacts, and foreign affairs ministerial counterparts across the world.

During today’s press conference, Deputy Prime Minister Freeland did not hesitate in stating that Canada is prepared to once more go dollar to dollar in terms of retaliatory tariffs, should the situation eventually require it once CUSMA comes up for joint review on June 30, 2026.

Minister Freeland noted that during the last trade negotiations with the Trump administration, Canada had enacted retaliatory tariffs on American goods, which ultimately helped in lifting the 2018 American tariffs of 25% on Canadian steel products and 10% on Canadian aluminum products.

Meanwhile, should the Trump administration reduce or eliminate Inflation Reduction Act subsidies and tax incentives for the EV sector, Deputy Prime Minister Freeland indicated that Canada had purposely negotiated with Stellantis, Northvolt, and others the right for Canada to reflect changes in American government policy towards these subsidies and tax incentives.

In the aftermath of President Elect-Trump’s first election, the Prime Minister had created a “Team Canada” structure inside and outside of government, including shuffling his Cabinet to best position his government for the incoming Trump administration, creating a dedicated Canada-USA team in his office as well as an informal group of cross-partisan business and political leaders as advisors and messengers to defend Canadian interests across the US. We expect a repeat of similar announcements to come in the coming days and weeks.

Stay informed with in-depth analyses, legal bulletins, podcast episodes, and other resources on our Canada-Trump Administration 2.0 page. We update this page frequently with the latest information to help you navigate the evolving relationship between Canada and the United States.

Contact the Authors

Authors

  • Daniel Brock, Partner | Leader, Government Relations, Toronto, ON | Ottawa, ON, +1 416 865 4513, dbrock@fasken.com
  • Guy W. Giorno, Partner | Leader, Political Law, Toronto, ON | Ottawa, ON, +1 613 696 6871, ggiorno@fasken.com
  • Alex Steinhouse, Counsel | Government Relations and Strategy, Montréal, QC, +1 514 397 4356 , asteinhouse@fasken.com

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