As CBC journalist Alexander Panetta quipped this week: President Trump “might be a miracle-worker: 1) Resurrected Canada’s Liberals from political dead 2) Canadian love for Wayne Gretzky in question for first time since the ‘70s 3) His commerce secretary’s comments making Canadians defend the GST.”
In this week’s Canada – Trump Administration 2.0 Update #12, Alex Steinhouse of the Fasken Government Relations and Political Law team provides a lay of the land on the tariffs (and other equally serious ) threats, and how the Canadian political scene has been reacting to it.
When and Which Tariffs Are Coming?
It has been an especially difficult week to follow US tariffs threats. The President and his advisors continue to blow hot and cold on whether the universal 25% tariffs on Canadian goods and 10% on Canadian energy imports will proceed on March 4th.
As a reminder, those tariffs on Canada and Mexico are (ostensibly) tied to border security, while universal 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum are set for March 12th (that would, in theory, be stacked on top of that first tranche of tariffs). Meanwhile, larger global retaliatory tariffs intended to “punish” countries with trade barriers against the US, including Canada, are being threatened for April 2nd (and not April 1st, as initially suggested, to ensure no one believes it is an April Fool’s joke).
On Monday, February 24th, President Trump said the 30-day pause on tariffs against Canada and Mexico was going to be lifted on March 4th: “The tariffs are going forward on time, on schedule.”
But then the very next day, White House officials clarified to reporters that the resumption of these tariffs was still the subject of negotiations with Canadian and Mexican counterparts, and that the President was, in fact, referring to the different, larger plan for retaliatory tariffs on various countries.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, February 25th the President signed yet another Executive Order, this time relating to copper imports, also under the guise of national security, layering on another potential tariff threat to Canada.
President Trump ordered a review as to whether there should be tariffs on copper imports, as well as products that include copper, to rebuild production of a metal critical to electrical power grids and home wiring, EVs, military hardware, telecommunications and electronics products, as well as consumer goods. The report to the President is due within nine months, and no specific rate for the tariffs has been cited at this point.
Canada is the second-largest source of imported copper into the US behind Chile, sending about US$1.2 billion in refined copper to the US last year alone.
Also on Tuesday, President Trump suggested that his administration could target cars, semiconductor chips and pharmaceuticals with 25% tariffs within weeks, in order to lure companies to set up their manufacturing bases in the US. He has also previously threatened tariffs on lumber and dairy products.
Then on Wednesday, February 26th, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reaffirmed Tuesday’s White House position and said that if “Canada and Mexico can prove to the President they’ve done ‘an excellent job’ on securing the border, tariffs could be postponed.” Lutnick also reaffirmed the April 2nd date for the other tariffs plan.
That day, President Trump, also vowed 25% tariffs on the European Union, claiming the bloc was “formed to screw the United States.” The EU vowed to respond “firmly and immediately” to “unjustified” trade barriers, signaling that it stands ready to retaliate swiftly against new tariffs.
On Thursday, February 27th, however, President Trump posted to social media that he will end the 30-day pause of tariffs against Canada and Mexico on March 4th, asserting that he must take action because “drugs are still pouring into our country,” that he “cannot allow this scourge to continue to harm the USA,” and so he will levy a 25% tariff on Canada “until it stops, or is seriously limited.” He also vowed additional 10% tariffs that same day on China, on top of the 10% he has already implemented.
Then, later that day in the Oval Office, the President claimed that he had seen no progress at the northern border: “I don’t see it at all. No, not on drugs,” Trump said when asked about Canada’s border efforts. He also appeared to have misunderstood America’s own border statistics on fentanyl seizures, saying Canada “should be apprehending much more, they’re only apprehending 1 per cent.”
Trump furthermore claimed that the stronger Mexico gets on border enforcement, the more “it goes up to Canada, and a lot of drugs are coming in through Canada.” He also rejected the premise that tariffs would be paid by American importers and consumers, telling a reporter, “They’re not, no, I think they’re paid for by the country.”
Despite what the President asserts, data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) released earlier this month shows there has been a significant decrease in fentanyl seizures coming from Canada, registering a 97% drop in January 2025 compared to December 2024.
The Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA) has also reported that it and law enforcement partners have made significant seizures at the border since Canada’s new border investments have been made. In February 2025 alone, “the CBSA made six seizures amounting to 56.1g of fentanyl, including the seizure of 20 fentanyl pills and 23g of a substance suspected to be fentanyl from two US citizens crossing at the Windsor-Detroit Tunnel port of entry.”
Moreover, moving away from the border, police are reporting national progress in the crackdown against fentanyl in communities. The RCMP has stated that over a recent six-week period, Canadian law enforcement has reported “489 occurrences related to fentanyl and synthetic opioids,” resulting in 524 arrests and the seizure of “large quantities of drugs and other commodities.”
Finally, Canada’s ambassador to the US, Kirsten Hillman, has stated that illegal migration from Canada into the US has declined by some 90% in recent months, and that Trump officials have been “pleased” with the progress.
Last month, CBP told CTV News that “illegal encounters between ports of entry at the Canada-US border decreased by more than 80 per cent between June to November last year due to expanded enforcement efforts.”
In Other Canada – Trump Administrations 2.0 Developments
One of the President’s closest advisors, Peter Navarro, made news twice this week for rumoured, shocking positions he’s been allegedly advancing against Canada. The Financial Times reported that Mr. Navarro has been pushing to exclude Canada from the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing network (Canada, US, UK, Australia and New Zealand) in order to increase pressure on Canada in trade negotiations. Mr. Navarro did a press scrum shortly after the article’s publication, in which he emphatically denied having advanced this position.
Then on Thursday, February 27th, the UK Telegraph reported that Mr. Navarro has also been pushing American trade negotiators to redraw the Canada-US border in discussions with Canadian counterparts: “Navarro recommended revising the Canada-US border, which is just crazy and dangerous,” a source close to negotiations told The Telegraph.
Federal Responses
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau convened a virtual First Ministers’ meeting Wednesday to discuss Canada-US relations, as well as the efforts being made to detect, disrupt and dismantle the fentanyl trade and protect our communities. The Prime Minister stated that he “remains hopeful that tariffs will not be imposed, but he reiterated that Canada stands ready to respond, if needed.”
Responding to President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on March 4th, the Prime Minister said Canada would answer the US with retaliatory tariffs that same day: “If ever they do go forward with these tariffs, which are completely unjustified, we will have a strong, immediate and certain answer.”
As to the alleged intention to redraw the border, Prime Minister Trudeau denied any such conversations have taken place. The Prime Minister also defended Canada’s role and contribution to the Five Eyes and noted that Mr. Navarro denied that report.
Canadian Ministers continue to make the case this week against tariffs in Washington, as Public Safety Minister David McGuinty and Immigration Minister Marc Miller spend parts of the week there, including meeting with Trump’s border czar Tom Homan on Thursday afternoon. They were accompanied on the trip by Fentanyl czar Kevin Brosseau, CBSA President Erin O’Gorman and RCMP Commissioner Mike Duheme.
When asked how confident he is about whether tariffs can be avoided next week, McGuinty said White House officials are acknowledging the progress at the border: “We’re showing more and more cooperation. They are eager to cooperate with us […] Any test that was put on this country, on Canada, in terms of showing progress and meeting standards for the border — I believe those have been met," said McGuinty.
Meanwhile, on Wednesday, February 26th, federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh requested that President Trump be banned from the G7 meeting planned for Kananaskis, Alberta in June. Prime Minister Trudeau nixed the idea, saying it was easy to say “shocking” things, but “I’m not one of those Canadian politicians that thinks that’s a responsible way to lead a country or even carry an important political dialogue.”
Former Conservative Party leader, Erin O’Toole, also made news this week, as a proponent of a “CANZUK” alliance between Canada, United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand, in order to better stabilize against the threats from the Trump administration. Together, the four countries could form an economic bloc with a combined GDP of roughly $6.5 trillion and the world’s third largest military force.
“Why wouldn't you want this? These are our closest friends and allies,” Mr. O’Toole said in an interview. “With the US pulling back, there should be a strong drive to get CANZUK done. The other good, democratic countries need to step up and fill the void.”
This follows recent trips by senior Canadian Ministers to Australia and the United Kingdom, to bolster trade between our countries.
News from the Premiers
In the past few days, two relatively popular Atlantic Canadian Premiers have surprised their provinces with sudden resignations, owing in part to no longer wanting to navigate the seemingly permanent instability caused by President Trump.
On Thursday, February 20th, Prince Edward Island Premier Dennis King announced his departure effective the following day, after six years at the helm of the province. The threats posed by the Trump administration were front of mind in his decision-making: “This is not going to be easy times,” King said. “This is not a time to be three-quarters of the way in. You’ve got to be all in.” Premier Rob Lantz has already been sworn in to replace him. The next election is scheduled for October 2027 under their fixed election date system.
Meanwhile, on Tuesday, February 25th, Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey, who had been playing a leading role in the Canadian response to American tariffs, making several trips personally to the US, also suddenly announced his resignation as Premier, after four and a half years in office. He will stay on until a new provincial Liberal leader is chosen.
Premier Furey believed responding to the Trump administration was too strenuous of an undertaking in order to commit to further public service at this juncture of his life: “We’re looking at four years of erratic, crazy, bonkers behaviour by the President of the United States. This is going to be a pervasive problem for Canadians for the next four years."
The Premier went on to say: “I mean it’s clear, right? The guy’s cracked. I mean, maybe I can speak more freely now but he — you know — he wakes up one morning and says something, water, cars, tomorrow it’s going to be tuna, who knows? It’s just, that’s how erratic and confusing it is, which is why I think the Canadian response needs to be calm, cool, measured, balanced, but responsible, standing up to this bully, an erratic bully.”
A provincial election is expected to take place this October or November.
Meanwhile, another Atlantic Canadian Premier made news in the fight against internal Canadian trade barriers. Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston’s government has tabled legislation, the Free Trade and Mobility within Canada Act, aimed at eliminating the need for any additional fees or testing requirements for goods coming to Nova Scotia from other provinces, and would only be extended to provinces or territories that adopt similar legislation. Under the Act, goods manufactured and produced in another province or territory that passes similar legislation would be treated the same as products produced in Nova Scotia. Additionally, service providers and licensed professionals who are properly certified would be recognized as if they were licensed in Nova Scotia. Finally, Nova Scotia would not apply any exceptions or “carve outs” in the Canadian Free Trade Agreement with a province or territory that passes a similar bill.
While on the campaign trail, Ontario Premier Doug Ford pledged to reciprocate Nova Scotia’s effort in this respect.
The Premier, now fresh off his election victory Thursday night, has also been eyeing Ontario electricity exports as a retaliatory measure to American tariffs. Premier Ford gave no further details on the proposed measure, or how it would fit in with his previously announced plan to cut off energy exports should Trump move forward with tariffs.
Finally, Alberta has introduced its budget on Thursday, February 27th, with the tariffs threat affecting its fiscal outlook. Finance Minister Nate Horner’s budget projects a $5.2 billion deficit this fiscal year, representing a $11 billion swing from the current budget, which is on track to register a surplus close to $6 billion. Deficits are projected to remain through to the 2027 provincial election. The Minister of Finance said Alberta is expecting an oil price decline and bracing for American tariffs impacting the provincial economy. The government is also honouring an electoral promise for an income tax break.
