Canada’s First Ministers Step Up
At this week’s First Ministers’ meeting, Ontario Premier Doug Ford made waves sporting a MAGA-inspired, navy-blue “Canada is not for sale”, baseball cap. But it was Alberta Premier Danielle Smith who truly stood out from the crowd of the convened federal, provincial, and territorial leaders. Once the meeting concluded, Premier Smith was the sole holdout on the resulting joint statement laying out Canada’s anticipated response to President-Elect Trump’s tariff threats.
The rift? The unwillingness other leaders to rule out export levies or restrictions on Albertan oil and gas exports as part of the suite of potential Canadian retaliatory measures. As Premier Ford put it, the other leaders of the Canadian federation believe that Canada cannot rule out any options – after all, “united we stand, divided we fall. We need to stand united.”
This bulletin will dig into this thorny fight amongst the First Ministers in "Team Canada,” and discuss some other Canadian political developments from this week as the clock ticks down to Inauguration day on January 20th.
Alex Steinhouse of the GR&PL group provides additional context below.
Canada’s Border Security Plan
On Tueday, Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, met with Premier Ford to give him an overview of the border plan ahead of Wednesday’s First Ministers’ meeting.
Premier Ford, who is the Chair of the Council of the Federation, told reporters that what he saw was "phenomenal" and called it "a solid, solid plan."
As laid out at a subsequent press conference, Public Safety Minister, David McGuinty and Immigration Minister, Marc Miller detailed the $1.3 billion border security plan.
The plan includes deploying two leased Blackhawk helicopters as of this weekend, and 60 new surveillance drones. The federal government is looking to acquire new “mobile surveillance towers” and other new technologies to improve upon border security and is also creating 80 new K-9 units to better search for drugs like fentanyl at land crossings.
Minister Miller also unveiled a scorecard of Canada’s renewed immigration efforts: from June to December 2024, there has been an 89% decrease in southbound apprehensions, and a newly established 63% rate of refusals for all temporary residents in November 2024, compared to what was a 38% rate in November 2023. The government also acknowledged that it had quietly agreed to extending the sharing of personal data collection with the Americans to include permanent residents crossing the border.
The Ministers also said that Canada is preparing in case the President-Elect’s campaign pledge to start mass deportations of illegal immigrants in the U.S. prompts a surge of asylum seekers trying to claim refuge in Canada.
On a social note, the Public Safety Minister said his next move is to invite US “Border Czar” Tom Homan to go fishing in Canada: “Apparently, he loves fishing,” Minister McGuinty said.
First Ministers’ Meeting
In addition to discussing the border security plan and working together to prevent the imposition of American tariffs, the First Ministers discussed Canada’s response to the expected American tariffs.
While 12 of the 14 leaders were in Ottawa for the meeting, BC Premier David Eby and Premier Smith attended virtually, the latter from Panama, where she landed after her weekend trip to Mar a Lago meeting with President-Elect Trump alongside Kevin O’Leary and Jordan Peterson.
The media pool feed of the First Ministers’ meeting showed that when the Alberta Premier popped up on the screen, Quebec Premier Francois Legault, while kibbitzing with some fellow Premiers, quipped “is she in Mar-a-Lago?” Premier Legault also got some attention this week with an Op Ed in the American political publication, The Hill, warning Americans about the toll tariffs will take on their wallets.
The post-meeting statement provided the following summary of “Team Canada’s” proposed strategy: “While they are making every effort to prevent US tariffs, First Ministers are committed to continuing to work together on a full range of measures to ensure a robust response to possible U.S. tariffs, including supports for sectors, businesses, and individuals. If the federal government implements retaliatory measures, it will ensure the rapid availability of substantial resources that effectively mitigate economic impacts to workers and businesses. This includes, but is not limited to, the distribution of revenues from potential retaliatory tariffs as quickly as possible. They agreed to take a collaborative approach to US engagement that recognizes the unique economic needs of all provinces and territories.”
While restrictions or tariffs on energy exports are not the first countervailing measure anticipated to be deployed, the First Ministers nonetheless want to keep “every tool available in their toolbox” as part of a truly national response.
The Prime Minister has previously suggested that blocking the flow of oil and gas to the U.S. is a possibility, as it provides real bargaining leverage for Canada as we export about four million barrels to the U.S. every day, and many American oil refineries depend on Canadian heavy crude oil.
In summarizing the views of the other Premiers, Premier Ford said: “I respect that [Premier Smith] is concerned about protecting her energy, and that’s her choice… I have a different theory. Protect your jurisdiction, but country comes first.”
Meanwhile, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who usually works in concert with Alberta, especially when it comes to oil and gas, said this with respect to the approach aligned by the Trudeau government: “We may have policy disagreements from time to time … and there are times that we do have to come together to represent what is in the best interests of all Canadians. And we in Saskatchewan, we continue to be Canadian.”
From Premier Smith’s point of view, any tariffs or restrictions on energy exports are unacceptable to Alberta, and risk sowing disunity amongst the federation. She will be attending the Presidential Inauguration on Monday, and presumably will continue to advance the Albertan perspective, rather than the above-described “Team Canada” approach, to any Trump Administration 2.0 officials that she meets.
Federal Government Actions
As the Liberal Party leadership race unfolds, Prime Minister Trudeau continues to focus on the Canada-US relationship. This week, the Prime Minister announced that he has convened a two day cabinet retreat next week to continue drawing up the plan for Canada against the serious economic threat posed by the Trump Administration 2.0.
The Prime Minister also announced the formation of a new Council on Canada-U.S. Relations, comprised of cross-partisan leaders in business, innovation, and policy. Notably members of the 18 person council include former Premiers Jean Charest, Stephen McNeil, and Rachel Notley, as well as David Macnaughton, Flavio Volpe, and Steve Verheul, Senator Hassan Yussuff, and Arlene Dickinson. Their first meeting is today (Friday, January 17) in Toronto.
Moreover, government sources are suggesting that the federal government will be ready to unveil on Monday details of its first round of proposed retaliatory tariffs. The first round of tariffs would cover approximately $37 billion of US imports, with implementation to follow immediately after. Another around of tariffs covering $110 billion would be prepared, depending on the size of the American tariffs.
In Washington for meetings with American counterparts, Energy Minister Jonathan Wilkinson says that he has been hearing that the tariffs could roll out in stages: “There’s the 25% option. There is simply a 10% across the board ... And then there’s a discussion that was happening the last few days about tariffs starting lower and then ratcheting up over time.”
Mr. Wilkinson went on to say that Trump’s executive orders are being developed by a small group in the incoming Trump’s administration, so it is hard to get a “good read on exactly what the nature of a tariff might look like.”
Opposition Parties
In an noteworthy departure from his now-regular calls for an immediate election, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh wrote a letter to the Prime Minister, bemoaning that prorogation is preventing House of Commons Standing Committees from contributing to “forg[ing] a concerted approach,” and requesting that the “Team Canada” approach be expanded to include opposition parties on an ongoing basis.
Meanwhile, CPC leader Pierre Poilievre says he will be putting forward the Conservatives’ proposed response to any new US tariffs in the weeks ahead, which will include targeted retaliatory tariffs as well as scrapping the proposed capital gains inclusion rate increase. Mr. Poilievre is currently refusing to say whether he thinks oil should be used as a bargaining chip, drawing condemnation from Mr. Trudeau for not picking a side.
What are Business Leaders Saying?
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce's Business Data Lab has launched a new Canada-U.S. Trade Tracker, a tool designed to help businesses and stakeholders gain a firm sense of the extent and nature of Canada’s trading relationship with the United States.
Meanwhile, Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters have recommended a series of immediate emergency support measures to shore up businesses in face of tariffs, including “short-term federal cost-coverage mechanism” funded by revenues from counter-tariffs and export taxes, new investment tax credits to encourage companies to proceed with planned investments, corporate tax deferrals, and employment insurance measures to help companies avoid layoffs.
Additionally, the Canada-US Trade Council has just launched with a plan to convene regular meetings amongst industry and labour leaders to share information and ideas for how best to approach the expected tariff war and the subsequent new NAFTA review phase. According to their press release, the trade council will draw on advice from advisers including Steve Verheul, Canada's former top trade negotiator, cross-border experts like Laura Dawson and past politicos like James Moore and Jean Charest.
Conclusion
On top of Inauguration Day on Monday, next week will see the Liberal Party of Canada leadership race begin in earnest for the next Canadian Prime Minister to face Mr. Trump (however brief the mandate may prove to be).
The front runners include Mark Carney, who has just declared his entry into the race on Thursday in Edmonton, and Chrystia Freeland, who will be doing her formal campaign launch on Sunday. Already both candidates are already distancing themselves from the Trudeau government, by hinting that they will no longer support the “carbon tax.” Other potential candidates include the Government House Leader, Minister Karina Gould, Minister Wilkinson, Ottawa MP Chandra Arya, Nova Scotia MP Jaime Battiste, and former MP Frank Baylis.
As such, there is no shortage of news to follow in the days to come for those engaged on the Canada-US relationship.
Stay informed with in-depth analyses, legal bulletins, podcast episodes, and other resources on our Canada-Trump Administration 2.0 page. We update this page frequently with the latest information to help you navigate the evolving relationship between Canada and the United States.
